CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-04-18T13:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-04-18T13:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5250/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-04-20T10:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -26
Dst min. time: 2014-04-21T04:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-21T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2014 Apr 18 2002 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The M7.3 flare peaking at 13:03 UT today was accompanied by a full halo CME first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 13:25 UT. The plane-of-the-sky projected speed of the CME was around 900 km/s. The bulk of the CME mass was going to the south-west, so we expect only a glancing blow when the corresponding ICME arrives at the Earth  on April 21, resulting in a geomagnetic storm with K index most probably up to 6. The halo CME also produced a proton event at energies above 10 MeV. 

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #
#                                                                    #
# For more information, see http://www.sidc.be.  Please do not reply #
# directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to     #
# 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use      #
# 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead.                                   #
# To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php        #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

Lead Time: 38.33 hour(s)
Difference: -25.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-04-18T20:02Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy